UTA beat VGK 6–0. UTA lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Clayton Keller scored at 5:33 of the first, moving UTA’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Ilya Samsonov allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:33 | UTA | Clayton Keller from Barrett Hayton | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:26 | UTA | Alexander KerfootSH unassisted | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 10:35 | UTA | Nick Schmaltz from Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton | 3–0 | 77% → 90% |
| P1 18:44 | UTA | Logan Cooley from Olli Maatta, Mikhail Sergachev | 4–0 | 92% → 99% |
| P2 1:02 | UTA | Michael Carcone from Alexander Kerfoot, Michael Kesselring | 5–0 | 99% → 99% |
| P2 5:28 | UTA | Nick SchmaltzPP from Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther | 6–0 | 99% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz C | 15:04 | 2 | +1.18 | −0.05 | +1.23 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 18:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.05 | +0.79 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.01 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Logan Cooley C | 18:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.02 | +0.36 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.03 |
| Michael Carcone L | 13:11 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.40 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 17:23 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 20:14 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 15:55 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 13:44 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 14:03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 13:57 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 21:44 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 14:35 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Kesselring D | 19:32 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 13:20 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 12:20 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ian Cole D | 21:06 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 14:31 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Stauber G | 59:45 | +3.04 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Hague D | 15:51 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 22:48 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 16:14 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cole Schwindt C | 11:21 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 20:27 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 15:50 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 18:57 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 13:43 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:29 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 12:51 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:08 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 12:15 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 11:14 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 18:36 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 16:54 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 18:00 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.58 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:18 | −0.54 | +0.04 | −0.37 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 16:20 | −0.73 | +0.05 | −0.64 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 60:00 | −3.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.