WSH beat NJD 6–5. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Taylor Raddysh scored at 13:54 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 49% to 85%. Jake Allen allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:19 |  WSH | Andrew Mangiapane from Hendrix Lapierre, John Carlson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:54 |  NJD | Nico Hischier from Luke Hughes, Timo Meier | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 2:38 | NJD | Justin Dowling from Brett Pesce | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 9:49 | WSH | Connor McMichaelPP from Pierre-Luc Dubois, John Carlson | 2–2 | 27% → 48% |
| P2 10:56 | WSH | Jakob ChychrunPP from Lars Eller, Rasmus Sandin | 3–2 | 48% → 69% |
| P2 19:47 | WSH | Rasmus SandinPP from Ivan Miroshnichenko | 4–2 | 73% → 89% |
| P3 2:03 | NJD | Stefan NoesenPP from Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt | 4–3 | 10% → 26% |
| P3 4:15 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Jack Hughes, Ondrej Palat | 4–4 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 13:54 | WSH | Taylor Raddysh from Martin Fehérváry, John Carlson | 5–4 | 49% → 85% |
| P3 14:04 | WSH | Pierre-Luc Dubois from Aliaksei Protas, Taylor Raddysh | 6–4 | 85% → 98% |
| P3 16:45 | NJD | Stefan NoesenPP from Timo Meier, Jack Hughes | 6–5 | 1% → 10% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Chychrun D | 19:49 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.03 | +0.89 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 14:36 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.09 | +0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.40 | +0.01 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 18:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.11 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Taylor Raddysh R | 14:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.02 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 16:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.18 | +0.58 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Connor McMichael L | 18:43 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.13 | +0.40 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ivan Miroshnichenko L | 9:38 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 10:09 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 15:41 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 18:12 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 20:32 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 15:22 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 15:26 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 13:19 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 19:09 | −0.22 | +0.07 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 23:41 | 3 | −0.23 | +0.16 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 12:42 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 14:29 | −0.65 | +0.04 | −0.43 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 60:00 | −1.64 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stefan Noesen R | 17:52 | 2 | +1.29 | +0.03 | +1.27 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 21:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.15 | +0.65 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nico Hischier C | 24:12 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.15 | +0.58 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Justin Dowling C | 6:47 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.10 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 13:10 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 2:46 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 12:05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 17:23 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 21:18 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shane Bowers C | 5:31 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 17:13 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 17:27 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 22:45 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 16:46 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 16:03 | −0.34 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 20:42 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.08 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 25:13 | 3 | −0.44 | +0.13 | −0.74 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.04 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 12:55 | −0.49 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.40 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 56:36 | −1.84 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.