VGK beat WPG 4–3. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brett Howden scored at 15:55 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 51% to 90%. Adin Hill allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:57 | WPG | Cole Perfetti from Josh Morrissey, Nikolaj Ehlers | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 18:13 |  VGK | Brett Howden unassisted | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P1 19:44 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Pavel Dorofeyev, Jack Eichel | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 14:28 | WPG | Cole Perfetti from Josh Morrissey, Vladislav Namestnikov | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 4:43 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Jack Eichel, Pavel Dorofeyev | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 8:55 | WPG | Neal Pionk from Haydn Fleury, Kyle Connor | 3–3 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 15:55 | VGK | Brett Howden from William Karlsson, Shea Theodore | 3–4 | 51% → 90% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Perfetti C | 15:31 | 2 | +1.62 | +0.13 | +1.49 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 21:49 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.01 | +0.91 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 21:13 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 22:56 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 14:31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 17:28 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 6:13 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 14:38 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 22:15 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.06 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 16:03 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Rasmus Kupari C | 7:00 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 16:35 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 25:55 | 2 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 15:42 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 15:04 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 6:23 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 15:04 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 23:21 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.40 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Comrie G | 58:19 | −1.15 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Howden C | 16:35 | 2 | +1.51 | +0.21 | +1.51 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 18:40 | 2 | +1.38 | −0.02 | +1.42 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 22:03 | 2 | +0.50 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.40 | +0.05 | |
| Alexander Holtz R | 14:11 | +0.08 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 15:13 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 19:46 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.17 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 21:18 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 18:51 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Schwindt C | 10:12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 15:29 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 19:20 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.19 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:39 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:03 | −0.13 | +0.21 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 8:39 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 14:11 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:37 | 2 | −0.19 | +0.10 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Callahan Burke C | 6:53 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:20 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 60:00 | −1.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.