SJS beat SEA 8–5. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mikael Granlund scored at 13:10 of the second, moving SJS’s win probability from 53% to 75%. Philipp Grubauer allowed 4.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:07 | SJS | Timothy Liljegren from Tyler Toffoli, Alexander Wennberg | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 3:03 |  SEA | Oliver Bjorkstrand from Eeli Tolvanen | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 16:25 | SJS | Klim Kostin from Fabian Zetterlund, William Eklund | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 16:58 | SEA | Chandler Stephenson from Jaden Schwartz | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P1 19:16 | SEA | Shane WrightPP from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Chandler Stephenson | 3–2 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 2:45 | SJS | Will Smith from Mikael Granlund | 3–3 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 7:20 | SEA | Shane WrightPP from Chandler Stephenson, Ryker Evans | 4–3 | 48% → 68% |
| P2 8:24 | SJS | Jake Walman from William Eklund, Macklin Celebrini | 4–4 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 13:10 | SJS | Mikael Granlund from Klim Kostin, Will Smith | 4–5 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 14:03 | SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Fabian Zetterlund | 4–6 | 75% → 90% |
| P2 19:43 | SEA | Yanni Gourde from Ryker Evans, Brandon Tanev | 5–6 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 7:37 | SJS | Ethan Cardwell from Nico Sturm, Henry Thrun | 5–7 | 81% → 95% |
| P3 15:13 | SJS | Jake WalmanEN unassisted | 5–8 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Wright C | 15:48 | 2 | +1.44 | −0.01 | +1.46 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 16:34 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.11 | +0.54 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 16:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.62 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 16:54 | 1 | 2 | +0.40 | −0.14 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Will Borgen D | 14:04 | +0.12 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 14:39 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Ryker Evans D | 20:41 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 16:56 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 12:01 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Joshua Mahura D | 14:35 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 19:00 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 16:07 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 18:10 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 18:26 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 14:33 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tye Kartye L | 13:10 | −0.20 | +0.20 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 22:43 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 18:09 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 59:29 | −4.84 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Granlund C | 15:22 | 1 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.16 | +0.82 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Jake Walman D | 18:23 | 2 | +0.91 | +0.11 | +0.81 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Smith C | 12:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.14 | +0.73 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Ethan Cardwell R | 10:15 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.04 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 18:52 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.04 | +0.85 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Klim Kostin C | 9:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.11 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 15:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.02 | +0.53 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 16:28 | 2 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:19 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 12:06 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jan Rutta D | 18:14 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 15:40 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Dellandrea C | 13:08 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| William Eklund L | 18:13 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 22:16 | −0.15 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 24:50 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 12:17 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 17:05 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 60:00 | −2.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.