MIN beat CHI 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (CHI 2.3, MIN 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jared Spurgeon scored at 17:33 of the second, moving MIN’s win probability from 53% to 76%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:23 | CHI | Ryan Donato from Tyler Bertuzzi | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 5:43 | CHI | Ryan DonatoPP from Alex Vlasic, Connor Bedard | 2–0 | 68% → 82% |
| P2 10:22 |  MIN | Marco Rossi from Marcus Johansson, Kirill Kaprizov | 2–1 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 10:39 | MIN | Jared Spurgeon from Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 17:33 | MIN | Jared Spurgeon from Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Foligno | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Donato C | 17:40 | 2 | +0.99 | −0.10 | +1.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.03 | |
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 20:18 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 20:59 | +0.08 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 14:53 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 11:51 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 17:22 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 14:20 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 14:18 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 15:29 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 14:04 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 21:01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Louis Crevier D | 14:32 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 15:09 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 12:19 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 18:10 | −0.33 | −0.28 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 22:59 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lukas Reichel L | 10:56 | −0.37 | +0.05 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 21:09 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.14 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 58:31 | −0.62 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Spurgeon D | 19:17 | 2 | +1.86 | +0.18 | +1.69 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 16:19 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.02 | +0.84 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.03 | |
| Declan Chisholm D | 18:43 | +0.16 | +0.24 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 23:47 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 15:26 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 19:28 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.16 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.03 | |
| Devin Shore C | 7:43 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 21:43 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.17 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 | |
| Ben Jones C | 8:03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 16:00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 23:53 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:35 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 13:22 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 9:04 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 13:26 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 25:38 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.11 | −0.30 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 16:52 | −0.28 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 13:50 | −0.56 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 60:00 | +0.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.