Tonight: 3 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
puckmodel
← All recaps

2024-11-29 · Wells Fargo Center

1 – 3Final

PHI beat NYR 3–1. PHI also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Bobby Brink scored at 3:14 of the first, moving PHI’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Igor Shesterkin saved 2.2 goals above expected.

Shots on goal
23 – 35
Expected goals
1.9 – 3.5
xG share
PHI 65%
Home-ice start
PHI 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

NYR goalPHI goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

NYRPHI

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

NYR
57:52 TOI
GSAx +2.25
+2.25
PHI
Ivan Fedotov
60:00 TOI
GSAx +1.30
+1.30
PHI
2 G, 0 A · 17:17 TOI
On-ice +0.06 · Finishing +0.41
+0.47

Rough nights

NYR
0 G, 1 A · 19:20 TOI
On-ice −0.14 · Finishing −0.38
−0.54
PHI
0 G, 0 A · 16:19 TOI
Finishing −0.57
−0.53
NYR
0 G, 0 A · 19:38 TOI
On-ice −0.09 · Finishing −0.39
−0.48

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalNYR–PHIWin prob.
P1 3:14 PHIBobby Brink
from Tyson Foerster
0–153% → 69%
P1 4:24 PHITravis Konecny
from Sean Couturier, Rasmus Ristolainen
0–269% → 82%
P2 10:20 NYRVincent Trocheck
from Will Cuylle, Braden Schneider
1–212% → 26%
P3 19:32 PHITravis KonecnyEN
from Travis Sanheim
1–397% → 100%

Every player

Show both lineups

NYR

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Vincent Trocheck C19:301+0.43−0.06+0.50+0.02−0.01+0.00−0.02
Braden Schneider D17:031+0.02+0.02−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jonny Brodzinski C11:37−0.04−0.01−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.02
K'Andre Miller D19:30−0.06−0.02+0.01−0.01−0.03+0.00+0.00
Zac Jones D17:02−0.06−0.04+0.01−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Artemi Panarin L19:54−0.06−0.07−0.03+0.06−0.02+0.00+0.00
Adam Fox D23:16−0.09−0.13+0.01+0.01+0.02+0.00+0.00
Adam Edstrom C10:24−0.11−0.10−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Sam Carrick C11:01−0.11−0.07−0.05−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.01
Jimmy Vesey L11:19−0.12−0.10−0.00−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Ryan Lindgren D20:47−0.13−0.13+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jacob Trouba D20:13−0.15−0.13−0.03+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Alexis Lafrenière L17:45−0.23+0.03−0.26+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Kaapo Kakko R14:30−0.27−0.07−0.22−0.01+0.02+0.00+0.02
Brett Berard L14:52−0.32−0.04−0.27−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Reilly Smith R12:27−0.34−0.03−0.11−0.00+0.00−0.20+0.00
Mika Zibanejad C19:38−0.48−0.09−0.39−0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Will Cuylle L19:201−0.54−0.14−0.38−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.01
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Igor Shesterkin G57:52+2.25

PHI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Travis Konecny R17:172+0.47+0.06+0.41+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Bobby Brink R13:481+0.34+0.11+0.22+0.01+0.00+0.00−0.01
Helge Grans D14:25+0.11+0.10+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Travis Sanheim D23:491+0.08+0.09+0.01+0.01−0.02+0.00+0.00
Rasmus Ristolainen D20:491+0.01+0.08−0.06−0.02+0.01+0.00+0.00
Nick Seeler D16:48+0.00+0.04−0.04−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Emil Andrae D20:02−0.00+0.09−0.11+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Matvei Michkov R14:03−0.00−0.01−0.00+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Cam York D22:25−0.04+0.03−0.06+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00
Ryan Poehling C15:48−0.05+0.04−0.11−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.03
Morgan Frost C12:27−0.06−0.06−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00−0.01
Sean Couturier C19:121−0.09+0.04−0.20+0.03−0.00+0.00+0.04
Scott Laughton C15:13−0.17+0.04−0.17−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.04
Owen Tippett R12:07−0.18−0.05−0.31−0.00−0.00+0.20−0.01
Noah Cates L14:51−0.24+0.23−0.48−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.02
Tyson Foerster R14:151−0.26+0.14−0.42+0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Joel Farabee L16:22−0.35+0.03−0.37−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Garnet Hathaway R16:19−0.53+0.02−0.57−0.01+0.03+0.00+0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Ivan Fedotov G60:00+1.30

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.