OTT beat SJS 4–3. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 1.4 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Adam Gaudette scored at 15:48 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 49% to 88%. Mackenzie Blackwood allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:35 |  OTT | Adam Gaudette from Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:56 | OTT | Josh NorrisPP from Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle | 2–0 | 65% → 78% |
| P2 9:19 |  SJS | Mario Ferraro from Will Smith, Klim Kostin | 2–1 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 15:22 | OTT | Tyler Kleven from Claude Giroux | 3–1 | 70% → 87% |
| P3 4:48 | SJS | Macklin Celebrini from William Eklund, Jake Walman | 3–2 | 8% → 24% |
| P3 12:32 | SJS | Will SmithPP from Fabian Zetterlund, Timothy Liljegren | 3–3 | 18% → 51% |
| P3 15:48 | OTT | Adam Gaudette from Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk | 4–3 | 49% → 88% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Gaudette R | 12:30 | 2 | +1.45 | +0.00 | +1.42 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Tyler Kleven D | 16:27 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.04 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Norris C | 18:43 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.23 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 20:17 | +0.13 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 16:04 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 17:57 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 19:36 | 3 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 11:15 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 7:44 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 15:03 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 20:37 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Reinhardt L | 12:53 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 11:32 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 19:59 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 23:27 | −0.36 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 22:06 | −0.41 | −0.36 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 14:07 | −0.43 | −0.19 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 15:51 | −0.46 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:00 | +1.46 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Ferraro D | 20:27 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.29 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 25:30 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.25 | +0.60 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Will Smith C | 14:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.29 | +0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 2:08 | +0.27 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 20:58 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.32 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:43 | +0.08 | +0.28 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 14:00 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 15:27 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 13:47 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 24:40 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.23 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 19:50 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 8:30 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Klim Kostin C | 10:46 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Walman D | 20:29 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 23:25 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.34 | −0.61 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 18:01 | −0.24 | +0.32 | −0.53 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:44 | −0.29 | +0.26 | −0.51 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 8:15 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 57:54 | −2.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.