COL beat VGK 2–1 in a shootout. COL also won the expected-goals battle 4.8 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Valeri Nichushkin scored at 13:42 of the second, moving COL’s win probability from 30% to 53%. Adin Hill saved 3.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 13:09 | VGK | Pavel Dorofeyev from Ivan Barbashev, Alex Pietrangelo | 1–0 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 13:42 | COL | Valeri Nichushkin unassisted | 1–1 | 30% → 53% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keegan Kolesar R | 14:08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Schwindt C | 10:56 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 10:55 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 13:50 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:16 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.28 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 24:42 | −0.28 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 18:16 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 15:30 | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 15:36 | −0.41 | −0.41 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Callahan Burke C | 13:29 | −0.45 | −0.15 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 15:58 | −0.47 | −0.19 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 25:40 | 1 | −0.53 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 20:28 | −0.57 | −0.77 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 15:36 | −0.60 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:06 | −0.64 | −0.46 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 11:37 | −0.72 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 23:06 | −0.87 | −0.53 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.39 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 24:12 | −1.07 | −0.51 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 65:00 | +3.84 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 22:47 | 1 | +1.79 | +0.46 | +0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| Devon Toews D | 26:21 | +0.61 | +0.36 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 23:13 | +0.35 | +0.75 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.32 | ||
| Oliver Kylington D | 13:43 | +0.18 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 15:23 | +0.15 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Ivan C | 11:29 | +0.15 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 20:15 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 10:10 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 22:42 | +0.06 | +0.16 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 10:43 | +0.04 | +0.17 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 11:31 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Chase Bradley L | 7:02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 26:21 | −0.02 | +0.69 | −0.28 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 20:50 | −0.03 | +0.31 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 11:25 | −0.15 | +0.23 | −0.37 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Kovalenko R | 15:05 | −0.26 | +0.14 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 27:05 | −0.49 | +0.87 | −1.10 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.39 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 20:23 | −0.56 | +0.32 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 64:53 | +2.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.