MTL beat CBJ 4–3 in overtime. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nick Suzuki scored at 0:44 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Elvis Merzlikins allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:08 | CBJ | Mathieu Olivier from Zach Werenski, Zachary Aston-Reese | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 13:00 |  MTL | Juraj Slafkovský unassisted | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 4:27 | CBJ | Egor Chinakhov from Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 6:34 | MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Juraj Slafkovský | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 8:24 | MTL | Emil Heineman from Jake Evans, Joel Armia | 3–2 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 12:22 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Damon Severson, Dmitri Voronkov | 3–3 | 17% → 51% |
| OT 0:44 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Lane Hutson | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 13:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.11 | +0.83 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Emil Heineman L | 13:31 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.07 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:13 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.39 | +0.39 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 16:55 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.38 | +0.23 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 25:29 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.67 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 19:28 | +0.21 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 16:44 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.04 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 13:48 | +0.05 | +0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 17:31 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jayden Struble D | 12:12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 14:50 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joshua Roy R | 11:03 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 24:39 | −0.08 | +0.17 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 19:48 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 16:12 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 12:03 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 12:44 | −0.33 | +0.10 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 16:59 | −0.40 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cayden Primeau G | 60:43 | −0.77 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Olivier R | 16:37 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.04 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 24:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.03 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 16:43 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.11 | +0.66 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 17:37 | +0.11 | +0.16 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.03 | ||
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 18:24 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 10:53 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 18:00 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.06 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 22:40 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 11:53 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 9:53 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 8:37 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 19:14 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 21:31 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 15:57 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.09 | −0.57 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Kent Johnson C | 18:54 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.23 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 4:02 | −0.44 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 21:31 | −0.46 | −0.42 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 24:22 | −0.53 | −0.52 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 59:16 | −1.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.