DET beat CGY 2–1 in overtime. DET also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Lucas Raymond scored on the power play at 3:35 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 54% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:33 |  DET | Alex DeBrincatPP from Michael Rasmussen, Lucas Raymond | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P3 17:12 | CGY | Connor ZaryPP from MacKenzie Weegar, Yegor Sharangovich | 1–1 | 9% → 49% |
| OT 3:35 | DET | Lucas RaymondPP from Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider | 1–2 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Zary C | 17:11 | 1 | +1.27 | +0.20 | +0.74 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.40 | −0.05 | |
| Kevin Rooney C | 9:14 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 15:28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 15:48 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Kirkland C | 7:56 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 11:56 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 7:53 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 24:17 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 25:47 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniil Miromanov D | 18:15 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 18:14 | −0.23 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.40 | −0.01 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 19:24 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 23:14 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 20:57 | −0.33 | −0.11 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 15:29 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 18:39 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:40 | −0.40 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 18:05 | −0.61 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 63:35 | +0.71 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat R | 15:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.04 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Lucas Raymond L | 20:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.23 | +0.59 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Andrew Copp C | 13:32 | +0.12 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 22:18 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 10:14 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 11:38 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 13:18 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 13:59 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 14:16 | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 10:39 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 16:51 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Edvinsson D | 23:52 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 27:29 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.25 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 15:07 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:16 | −0.20 | +0.15 | −0.36 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 23:14 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:27 | −0.24 | +0.30 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.40 | +0.07 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 15:44 | −0.30 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 63:35 | +0.95 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.