CAR beat NYR 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 2.4, CAR 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jackson Blake scored on the power play at 12:01 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 53% to 85%. Igor Shesterkin allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:53 |  CAR | Jack Drury from Martin Necas, Dmitry Orlov | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 17:38 | NYR | Jonny Brodzinski from Jimmy Vesey, Ryan Lindgren | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 1:12 | CAR | Seth JarvisPP from Martin Necas, Sebastian Aho | 1–2 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 9:13 | NYR | Brett Berard from Will Cuylle, Zac Jones | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 18:49 | NYR | Adam Edstrom from Reilly Smith, Adam Fox | 3–2 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 9:54 | CAR | Jesperi Kotkaniemi from Eric Robinson, Shayne Gostisbehere | 3–3 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 12:01 | CAR | Jackson BlakePP from Jack Drury, Jack Roslovic | 3–4 | 53% → 85% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Berard L | 13:47 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 8:50 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.05 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Adam Edstrom C | 9:53 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.08 | +0.48 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 14:56 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 23:18 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 11:01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 20:57 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Braden Schneider D | 14:20 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 8:55 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 20:13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:02 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 10:26 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 19:29 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 21:21 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 19:25 | −0.39 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Zac Jones D | 15:18 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 22:56 | −0.52 | −0.12 | −0.48 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 19:40 | 1 | −0.67 | −0.16 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 57:42 | −1.15 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Blake R | 8:32 | 1 | +1.04 | +0.11 | +0.53 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 8:52 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.09 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 21:16 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.05 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Drury C | 13:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.08 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.02 |
| Brent Burns D | 22:03 | +0.35 | +0.19 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:37 | +0.16 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 7:43 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 14:47 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 21:00 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 14:17 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 20:51 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 15:14 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:42 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 17:32 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 23:39 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.12 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.09 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 16:00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 19:54 | 2 | −0.39 | −0.05 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| William Carrier L | 13:01 | −0.63 | +0.01 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Martin G | 59:26 | −0.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.