UTA beat MTL 3–2 in overtime. UTA also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mikhail Sergachev scored at 4:33 of overtime, moving UTA’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 6:23 | UTA | Dylan Guenther from Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz | 1–0 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 8:05 | MTL | Jayden Struble from Cole Caufield, David Savard | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 0:46 | MTL | Alex Newhook from Christian Dvorak, Arber Xhekaj | 1–2 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 4:17 | UTA | Jack McBain from Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
| OT 4:33 | UTA | Mikhail Sergachev from Nick Schmaltz, Barrett Hayton | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack McBain C | 15:09 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 30:43 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.18 | +0.56 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 18:09 | +0.48 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.40 | −0.04 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 19:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.12 | +0.44 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Matias Maccelli L | 9:45 | +0.15 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 22:16 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.10 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 24:45 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 18:39 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 11:31 | −0.05 | +0.12 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 16:20 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 23:13 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 21:25 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.23 | −0.44 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 10:04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Maveric Lamoureux D | 14:57 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 4:51 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 14:01 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.24 | −0.47 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ian Cole D | 23:25 | −0.35 | −0.07 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 7:49 | −0.55 | −0.03 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 64:06 | −0.06 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Struble D | 17:11 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.17 | +0.86 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 19:15 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.08 | +0.62 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.03 | |
| Justin Barron D | 15:12 | +0.06 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:56 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:21 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 13:39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 14:39 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 11:29 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 14:24 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 26:25 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 14:29 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.05 | |
| Joshua Roy R | 11:30 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 17:53 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 14:30 | −0.29 | −0.21 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 18:38 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 16:07 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 26:28 | −0.38 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 16:33 | −0.42 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 64:33 | +0.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.