VGK beat PHI 5–4 in a shootout. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 4.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tanner Pearson scored at 11:55 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 15% to 48%. Ilya Samsonov saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:51 | PHI | Morgan Frost from Rasmus Ristolainen, Owen Tippett | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:07 | PHI | Sean Couturier from Travis Konecny | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P2 0:28 | PHI | Emil Andrae from Garnet Hathaway, Scott Laughton | 0–3 | 86% → 94% |
| P2 7:42 | VGK | Jack Eichel from Ivan Barbashev | 1–3 | 4% → 12% |
| P2 11:32 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Jack Eichel | 2–3 | 11% → 26% |
| P2 13:18 | PHI | Matvei Michkov from Morgan Frost | 2–4 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 18:10 | VGK | Pavel DorofeyevPP from Shea Theodore, Tomas Hertl | 3–4 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 11:55 | VGK | Tanner Pearson from Noah Hanifin, Nicolas Hague | 4–4 | 15% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel C | 23:14 | 1 | 1 | +1.12 | −0.48 | +0.77 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.78 |
| Tanner Pearson L | 13:51 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.20 | +0.50 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 20:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.33 | +0.66 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 19:00 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.25 | +0.28 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Robert Hagg D | 13:18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Morelli L | 7:31 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 22:09 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Holtz R | 7:45 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Schwindt C | 8:59 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 14:58 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:44 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 18:53 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Callahan Burke C | 12:57 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 27:42 | −0.36 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 17:29 | −0.58 | −0.36 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 27:39 | 1 | −0.62 | −0.37 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 18:16 | −0.65 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 15:59 | 1 | −0.74 | −0.21 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.07 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 64:56 | +2.36 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Andrae D | 21:29 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.20 | +0.77 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 17:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.22 | +0.53 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 |
| Sean Couturier C | 22:05 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.39 | +0.46 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Matvei Michkov R | 19:31 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.49 | +0.26 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.39 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 21:02 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.35 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Foerster R | 12:56 | +0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 22:39 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 12:35 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 22:52 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.57 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Noah Cates L | 13:07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 13:33 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 14:16 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 15:19 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Helge Grans D | 14:00 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 11:45 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 19:51 | −0.28 | +0.30 | −0.55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 27:08 | −0.58 | +0.69 | −1.46 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 16:06 | 1 | −0.69 | +0.14 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.33 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Fedotov G | 64:55 | −1.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.