CBJ beat CAR 5–4 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (CAR 3.1, CBJ 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Kirill Marchenko scored on the power play at 18:54 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 6% to 50%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:04 | CBJ | Dante Fabbro unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:41 |  CAR | Jack Roslovic from Sebastian Aho | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 10:20 | CBJ | Kirill Marchenko unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 5:40 | CAR | Jalen Chatfield from Dmitry Orlov, Martin Necas | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 7:10 | CBJ | Dmitri VoronkovPP from Kent Johnson, Zach Werenski | 2–3 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 10:39 | CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Martin Necas | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 13:23 | CAR | Jackson Blake from Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 4–3 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 18:54 | CBJ | Kirill MarchenkoPP from Sean Monahan, Kent Johnson | 4–4 | 6% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Chatfield D | 18:00 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.84 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 17:47 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.14 | +0.59 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 12:44 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.10 | +0.38 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 23:53 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 23:39 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 24:34 | 1 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.15 | +0.23 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.49 |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 18:58 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:09 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 10:45 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 9:36 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 18:01 | −0.14 | +0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 7:43 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 20:46 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 16:31 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 13:11 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 14:28 | −0.30 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 20:16 | 2 | −0.43 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 21:49 | −0.56 | +0.07 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Martin G | 2:08 | −0.12 |
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 62:10 | −0.56 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko R | 20:15 | 2 | +1.30 | −0.08 | +1.38 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 25:36 | 1 | +1.12 | +0.12 | +0.81 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 18:01 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.10 | +0.33 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 18:46 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.66 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 12:03 | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 12:43 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 21:23 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 10:50 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 11:24 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 12:47 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 15:09 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 19:38 | 2 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 32:17 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 10:37 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 18:24 | −0.41 | −0.06 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.16 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 14:10 | −0.57 | +0.03 | −0.59 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 17:18 | −0.63 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.20 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 17:56 | −0.78 | +0.16 | −0.87 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 64:32 | +0.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.