VGK beat MTL 6–2. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tomas Hertl scored at 4:39 of the second, moving VGK’s win probability from 47% to 67%. Samuel Montembeault allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:39 |  VGK | Tomas Hertl from Brayden McNabb, Shea Theodore | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 8:18 | VGK | Callahan Burke from Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel | 2–0 | 68% → 84% |
| P2 9:09 | VGK | Ivan Barbashev from Jack Eichel | 3–0 | 84% → 95% |
| P2 10:35 | VGK | Tanner Pearson from Noah Hanifin, Cole Schwindt | 4–0 | 95% → 99% |
| P2 17:02 | VGK | Keegan Kolesar from Zach Whitecloud, Noah Hanifin | 5–0 | 99% → 99% |
| P3 2:03 |  MTL | Emil HeinemanPP from Joel Armia, Brendan Gallagher | 5–1 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 13:03 | MTL | Jayden Struble from Brendan Gallagher, Josh Anderson | 5–2 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 18:12 | VGK | Jack Eichel from Ivan Barbashev, Shea Theodore | 6–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:13 | 1 | 2 | +0.80 | +0.04 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Eichel C | 21:29 | 1 | 2 | +0.76 | +0.09 | +0.60 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Tanner Pearson L | 10:55 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.02 | +0.67 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:15 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.08 | +0.53 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 16:12 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.10 | +0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Callahan Burke C | 12:46 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.03 | +0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 23:04 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Schwindt C | 11:00 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kaedan Korczak D | 16:06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 12:47 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 16:41 | −0.01 | +0.13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 15:09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 18:28 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 16:42 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:16 | 2 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 23:26 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.24 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| William Karlsson C | 15:40 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 16:58 | −0.35 | +0.05 | −0.40 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 60:00 | −0.40 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emil Heineman L | 10:59 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.06 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jayden Struble D | 14:42 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.04 | +0.76 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 15:28 | +0.17 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.05 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 15:47 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| David Savard D | 18:53 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 14:30 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 25:35 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 16:22 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 21:28 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 21:06 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Condotta L | 9:36 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 14:13 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 16:26 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:16 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 15:30 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:32 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:16 | 2 | −0.35 | −0.13 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 14:48 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cayden Primeau G | 20:00 | −0.69 |
| Samuel Montembeault G | 39:42 | −1.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.