CGY beat MIN 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (MIN 3.0, CGY 3.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Marco Rossi scored on the power play at 19:26 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 4% to 49%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:00 |  CGY | Kevin Rooney from Daniil Miromanov, Justin Kirkland | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 16:03 | MIN | Marcus Johansson from Matt Boldy | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 19:29 | CGY | Martin PospisilPP from Nazem Kadri, Rasmus Andersson | 1–2 | 53% → 77% |
| P3 3:53 | CGY | Yegor SharangovichPP from Connor Zary, MacKenzie Weegar | 1–3 | 80% → 93% |
| P3 16:01 | MIN | Brock FaberPP from Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy | 2–3 | 1% → 10% |
| P3 19:26 | MIN | Marco RossiPP from Joel Eriksson Ek | 3–3 | 4% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Faber D | 26:04 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.04 | +0.83 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 15:22 | +0.42 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.66 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 19:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.07 | +0.85 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.49 |
| Jon Merrill D | 13:05 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 14:21 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 22:57 | +0.15 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 15:19 | +0.09 | +0.26 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 21:04 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 7:58 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ben Jones C | 7:13 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 8:23 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 22:30 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:05 | −0.16 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:44 | −0.16 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 25:33 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.18 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.11 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 25:57 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.25 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.12 | −0.49 | |
| Jakub Lauko C | 13:01 | −0.31 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 17:29 | −0.54 | +0.19 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 63:22 | −0.89 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Andersson D | 27:14 | 1 | +1.20 | +0.19 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| Martin Pospisil C | 13:57 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.03 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Justin Kirkland C | 10:01 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.67 | |
| Kevin Rooney C | 8:29 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.16 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Brayden Pachal D | 14:09 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 8:59 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 18:30 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 17:42 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.06 | −0.00 | |
| Joel Hanley D | 12:28 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 24:06 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 22:52 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.07 | +0.23 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.32 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 15:20 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:18 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniil Miromanov D | 20:28 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 13:47 | −0.26 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.29 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 17:44 | −0.42 | +0.18 | −0.42 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 22:09 | −0.55 | −0.31 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 19:35 | −0.96 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 64:38 | +0.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.