STL beat SJS 3–2 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (SJS 2.2, STL 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alexander Wennberg scored on the power play at 19:51 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 3% to 49%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:11 |  STL | Nathan Walker from Radek Faksa | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:23 | SJS | Alexander WennbergPP from Mikael Granlund, Macklin Celebrini | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P2 11:47 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Robert Thomas | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 19:51 | SJS | Alexander WennbergPP from Mikael Granlund, Macklin Celebrini | 2–2 | 3% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:53 | 2 | +1.63 | −0.08 | +1.60 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.08 | −0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 21:12 | +0.24 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 6:47 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 17:38 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 10:21 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 21:35 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 8:23 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 16:36 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 18:39 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Thompson D | 15:25 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 22:21 | −0.20 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 19:00 | −0.22 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 23:09 | 2 | −0.36 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.32 | |
| Klim Kostin C | 12:45 | −0.42 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 23:48 | 2 | −0.42 | +0.16 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.39 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 16:14 | −0.42 | −0.17 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 21:51 | −0.49 | −0.08 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 21:38 | −0.74 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 62:21 | +0.06 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Neighbours L | 16:05 | +0.94 | +0.07 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.01 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 10:49 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.07 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 20:55 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.08 | +0.56 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 | |
| Scott Perunovich D | 17:23 | +0.26 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 23:13 | +0.09 | +0.18 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 15:53 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 23:18 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.26 | −0.29 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 10:21 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Corey Schueneman D | 12:27 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 12:13 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 24:22 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 30:02 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 9:48 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 22:26 | −0.13 | +0.13 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 12:37 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.07 | −0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 18:06 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 11:30 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 20:30 | −0.59 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.32 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 65:00 | +0.94 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.