NJD beat CAR 4–2. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dougie Hamilton scored at 10:35 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 52% to 83%. Spencer Martin allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:43 | CAR | Jack Roslovic from Eric Robinson, Dmitry Orlov | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:45 |  NJD | Jesper Bratt from Jack Hughes, Ondrej Palat | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 0:46 | NJD | Stefan NoesenPP from Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt | 1–2 | 58% → 72% |
| P3 0:12 | CAR | Andrei SvechnikovPP from Martin Necas, Shayne Gostisbehere | 2–2 | 24% → 48% |
| P3 10:35 | NJD | Dougie Hamilton from Dawson Mercer, Tomas Tatar | 2–3 | 52% → 83% |
| P3 14:05 | NJD | Jesper BrattPP from Stefan Noesen, Jack Hughes | 2–4 | 88% → 98% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 15:17 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.07 | +0.59 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 19:59 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.05 | +0.67 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 16:36 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| William Carrier L | 10:21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 15:59 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 12:16 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:25 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 17:03 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 20:40 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 7:34 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 18:57 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:12 | −0.16 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 20:04 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 23:18 | −0.20 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 18:40 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Drury C | 12:17 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 14:58 | −0.48 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 11:53 | −0.53 | −0.07 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Martin G | 56:21 | −1.66 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:43 | 2 | 1 | +1.44 | +0.20 | +1.23 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 19:04 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.24 | +0.85 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Stefan Noesen R | 18:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.16 | +0.51 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Hughes C | 21:44 | 3 | +0.22 | +0.16 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.04 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 21:38 | +0.16 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 20:12 | +0.13 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 10:50 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.08 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 19:31 | +0.09 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Bowers C | 8:35 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Dowling C | 8:43 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 14:05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 22:29 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 16:32 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 18:19 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:47 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 17:34 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Timo Meier R | 16:19 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 9:28 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 59:39 | −0.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.