DET beat NYI 2–1. DET also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Lucas Raymond scored at 19:08 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 50% to 96%. Ilya Sorokin saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:51 |  NYI | Simon Holmstrom from Scott Mayfield | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P3 15:14 |  DET | Jonatan Berggren from J.T. Compher | 1–1 | 13% → 51% |
| P3 19:08 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Dylan Larkin, Simon Edvinsson | 1–2 | 50% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:53 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.04 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 20:55 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Martin L | 6:44 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 8:04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 16:21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dennis Cholowski D | 13:17 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 20:11 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 7:38 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaiah George D | 19:31 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 20:56 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 22:37 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:20 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 18:40 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 12:43 | −0.32 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 17:27 | −0.37 | −0.06 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:52 | −0.38 | −0.15 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 20:34 | −0.39 | −0.11 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 21:00 | −0.41 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 59:17 | +1.10 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Raymond L | 19:01 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.13 | +0.59 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 11:20 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.05 | +0.70 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 17:26 | +0.18 | +0.11 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 22:11 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 14:19 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 21:55 | +0.02 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 24:44 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 18:45 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Albert Johansson D | 12:33 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 19:01 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 13:53 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 13:41 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 12:40 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 13:43 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 13:24 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 14:32 | −0.41 | −0.09 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:00 | −0.41 | +0.10 | −0.58 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 16:52 | −0.42 | +0.09 | −0.50 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 60:00 | +1.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.