MIN beat STL 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (MIN 2.3, STL 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jonas Brodin scored at 13:44 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 49% to 85%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:24 | MIN | Ryan Hartman from Marco Rossi, Brock Faber | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 4:48 | STL | Scott Perunovich from Jordan Kyrou, Zachary Bolduc | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 6:07 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Jake Middleton, Matt Boldy | 2–1 | 48% → 76% |
| P3 10:37 | STL | Jake NeighboursPP from Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas | 2–2 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 13:44 | MIN | Jonas Brodin from Jared Spurgeon, Marcus Johansson | 3–2 | 49% → 85% |
| P3 18:37 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovEN unassisted | 4–2 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 21:58 | 2 | +1.04 | +0.10 | +0.68 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 15:17 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.11 | +0.87 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 21:06 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.04 | +0.80 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Declan Chisholm D | 17:41 | +0.12 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 19:18 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:36 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Jones C | 7:13 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:13 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Lauko C | 10:03 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 23:05 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 16:33 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 11:43 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:14 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 13:55 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 19:27 | −0.30 | +0.08 | −0.39 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 20:12 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 16:48 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 17:49 | 1 | −0.62 | +0.12 | −0.54 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 60:00 | −0.28 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Perunovich D | 19:20 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.07 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 16:21 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 20:41 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Walker L | 11:53 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 23:40 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Schueneman D | 13:51 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 9:23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 8:30 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 24:24 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 15:16 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 13:50 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 23:07 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.35 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 13:28 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 14:48 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 13:37 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 20:32 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.22 | −0.47 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 9:18 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 22:31 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 59:30 | −0.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.