NSH beat VAN 5–3. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 1.6 to 2.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Roman Josi scored at 14:21 of the second, moving NSH’s win probability from 47% to 70%. Kevin Lankinen allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:28 |  NSH | Zachary L'Heureux from Cole Smith, Michael McCarron | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 11:34 |  VAN | Aatu Räty from Erik Brannstrom, Danton Heinen | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 9:51 | VAN | Elias PetterssonPP from Quinn Hughes, Conor Garland | 1–2 | 54% → 74% |
| P2 12:17 | NSH | Steven StamkosPP from Roman Josi, Ryan O'Reilly | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 14:21 | NSH | Roman Josi from Brady Skjei, Filip Forsberg | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 19:38 | NSH | Steven StamkosPP from Jonathan Marchessault, Filip Forsberg | 4–2 | 73% → 89% |
| P3 14:00 | VAN | Kiefer Sherwood from Danton Heinen, Tyler Myers | 4–3 | 2% → 15% |
| P3 19:39 | NSH | Gustav NyquistEN unassisted | 5–3 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 16:29 | 2 | +1.32 | −0.02 | +1.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roman Josi D | 22:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 12:14 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 18:06 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 17:55 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Cole Smith L | 13:56 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:03 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 20:12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 19:47 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 20:42 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 17:13 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 12:40 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 16:27 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Parssinen C | 11:33 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Del Gaizo D | 18:25 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 12:17 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 14:02 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 15:01 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 60:00 | −0.16 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 17:29 | 1 | +0.93 | −0.09 | +0.83 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Aatu Räty C | 11:31 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.05 | +0.62 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 21:35 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.10 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 27:25 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 25:13 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 13:17 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 11:41 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki R | 15:27 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 13:30 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 15:15 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 16:18 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 13:01 | 2 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 10:48 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 13:19 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 19:16 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 17:18 | −0.31 | +0.07 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 17:30 | −0.35 | −0.18 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 19:55 | 1 | −0.73 | −0.02 | −0.55 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 58:51 | −2.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.