DAL beat MIN 2–1. Expected goals were close to even (DAL 2.5, MIN 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mason Marchment scored at 18:43 of the first, moving DAL’s win probability from 47% to 65%. Filip Gustavsson saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:43 | DAL | Mason Marchment from Ilya Lyubushkin, Tyler Seguin | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P3 11:24 | DAL | Mason Marchment from Sam Steel, Ilya Lyubushkin | 2–0 | 82% → 96% |
| P3 14:10 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Jared Spurgeon, Matt Boldy | 2–1 | 2% → 15% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Marchment L | 16:55 | 2 | +1.93 | +0.15 | +1.52 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 26:20 | +0.11 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 20:11 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 7:56 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 17:54 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 25:35 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 12:40 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tyler Seguin C | 16:48 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.13 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 16:13 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 14:19 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 14:16 | −0.21 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 13:47 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 17:47 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 15:25 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 16:36 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 15:10 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 10:40 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 17:28 | −0.37 | +0.12 | −0.61 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 60:00 | +0.58 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 23:54 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.12 | +0.45 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 21:49 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.13 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jakub Lauko C | 8:14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 15:26 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | −0.06 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 10:30 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Michael Milne L | 6:34 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 19:01 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 18:28 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 26:06 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 16:40 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 16:00 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 19:36 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 15:18 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Declan Chisholm D | 20:31 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 21:02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 14:44 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 12:10 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 14:14 | −0.43 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 57:43 | +1.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.