MTL beat CBJ 5–1. MTL also won the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nick Suzuki scored at 15:49 of the second, moving MTL’s win probability from 53% to 75%. Daniil Tarasov allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:59 |  MTL | Mike MathesonPP from Cole Caufield, Kirby Dach | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P2 7:40 | CBJ | Dante Fabbro from Zach Werenski, Kevin Labanc | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 15:49 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Joel Armia, Arber Xhekaj | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 11:04 | MTL | Lucas Condotta from Joel Armia | 1–3 | 84% → 97% |
| P3 12:52 | MTL | Jake Evans from Cole Caufield | 1–4 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 15:55 | MTL | Josh Anderson from Mike Matheson, Lane Hutson | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dante Fabbro D | 22:02 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.04 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 26:00 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 15:53 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 10:32 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Harris D | 13:25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 13:53 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 14:53 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 15:54 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 20:56 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 13:46 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 19:28 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 10:53 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 12:09 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 14:12 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 10:55 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 20:50 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 17:20 | −0.44 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 20:35 | −0.50 | −0.07 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 59:08 | −2.58 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Evans C | 17:22 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.08 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:21 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.02 | +0.83 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Lucas Condotta L | 6:07 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.04 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 15:23 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.05 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 27:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.03 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 21:39 | +0.26 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 22:50 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 15:57 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 15:47 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 15:51 | 2 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 12:48 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 16:56 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 12:55 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 13:18 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 19:04 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Emil Heineman L | 8:59 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 14:03 | −0.38 | −0.05 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 15:36 | 2 | −0.49 | −0.04 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 60:00 | +1.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.