TOR beat EDM 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (EDM 2.7, TOR 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mitch Marner scored at 0:40 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Stuart Skinner allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:42 |  EDM | Adam Henrique from Mattias Janmark, Connor Brown | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 3:53 |  TOR | Bobby McMann from John Tavares, Mitch Marner | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 1:51 | EDM | Connor McDavidPP from Zach Hyman, Leon Draisaitl | 2–1 | 48% → 66% |
| P3 13:08 | TOR | Matthew Knies unassisted | 2–2 | 16% → 51% |
| P3 14:07 | TOR | Bobby McMann from Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 2–3 | 51% → 87% |
| P3 18:31 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid | 3–3 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 0:40 | TOR | Mitch Marner unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 22:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.19 | +0.63 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Adam Henrique C | 16:33 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.05 | +0.53 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 7:45 | +0.20 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 14:05 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 15:04 | +0.09 | +0.17 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 24:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.27 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Derek Ryan C | 8:47 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 21:28 | −0.02 | +0.17 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 10:51 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 8:13 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 13:43 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 25:39 | −0.07 | +0.10 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 20:57 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 12:10 | −0.14 | +0.13 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 11:10 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 14:23 | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 25:01 | −0.40 | −0.08 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 21:52 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 60:04 | −1.90 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby McMann C | 19:06 | 2 | +1.40 | +0.13 | +1.27 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matthew Knies L | 21:05 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.07 | +0.76 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 24:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.05 | +0.51 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake McCabe D | 22:45 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 8:40 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 17:52 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 6:46 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 19:14 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 22:28 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jani Hakanpää D | 12:34 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 14:22 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Pontus Holmberg R | 13:02 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Max Domi C | 14:42 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 20:13 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 22:35 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 3:54 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:05 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 21:18 | −0.42 | −0.12 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 60:40 | −0.28 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.