SEA beat NYI 3–2. SEA lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jamie Oleksiak scored at 16:47 of the third, moving SEA’s win probability from 51% to 92%. Ilya Sorokin allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:10 |  SEA | Yanni Gourde from Brandon Tanev, Tye Kartye | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 13:38 | NYI | Pierre Engvall from Ryan Pulock, Dennis Cholowski | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P3 4:49 | NYI | Brock NelsonSH from Noah Dobson, Kyle Palmieri | 2–1 | 47% → 75% |
| P3 5:26 | SEA | Jared McCann from Andre Burakovsky, Ryker Evans | 2–2 | 24% → 52% |
| P3 16:47 | SEA | Jamie Oleksiak from Yanni Gourde, Brandon Tanev | 2–3 | 51% → 92% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Engvall L | 12:37 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.14 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 20:09 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.01 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 16:56 | +0.25 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaiah George D | 18:40 | +0.11 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 21:07 | +0.10 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 20:20 | +0.09 | +0.26 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Grant Hutton D | 15:28 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Cholowski D | 14:03 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 23:03 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.27 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 7:09 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 24:38 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.08 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle MacLean C | 6:52 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 4:56 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 17:41 | −0.08 | +0.28 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 11:06 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 21:37 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 20:15 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.11 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 16:45 | −0.77 | −0.12 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 58:38 | −1.18 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared McCann L | 17:43 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.16 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 20:54 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.04 | +0.91 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 15:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.06 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Joshua Mahura D | 12:11 | +0.05 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 14:10 | 2 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tye Kartye L | 11:07 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 20:09 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:00 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 16:47 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 16:07 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.20 | −0.07 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 12:58 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 10:55 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 10:40 | −0.19 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 8:34 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 22:15 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 25:51 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 20:08 | −0.38 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 21:40 | −0.74 | −0.18 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 60:00 | +0.42 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.