STL beat BOS 3–2 in overtime. STL also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brayden Schenn scored at 2:53 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:25 | STL | Radek Faksa from Scott Perunovich, Alexey Toropchenko | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:34 |  BOS | Trent Frederic from Georgii Merkulov, Charlie McAvoy | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 12:12 | BOS | Trent Frederic from Mason Lohrei | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P3 9:18 | STL | Nathan Walker from Radek Faksa, Alexey Toropchenko | 2–2 | 18% → 48% |
| OT 2:53 | STL | Brayden Schenn from Colton Parayko | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Perunovich D | 18:50 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 13:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.03 | +0.29 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Colton Parayko D | 26:20 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Walker L | 12:09 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.05 | +0.32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 21:33 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.02 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 13:51 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 25:28 | +0.03 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 12:00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 8:58 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 11:37 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 10:16 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:31 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 18:47 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 20:56 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 18:04 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 19:03 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Corey Schueneman D | 14:49 | −0.21 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 22:33 | −0.37 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 62:53 | −0.28 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Frederic C | 16:37 | 2 | +0.44 | −0.01 | +0.65 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Lohrei D | 20:29 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Georgii Merkulov C | 13:11 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 25:07 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.13 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 20:22 | +0.08 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 18:04 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 16:42 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 15:24 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 5:18 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 21:12 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 20:28 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Riley Tufte L | 7:46 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Koepke L | 10:58 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 16:39 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 18:19 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 21:26 | −0.15 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 18:20 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 16:24 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.19 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 62:53 | −0.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.