CGY beat NSH 2–0. Expected goals were close to even (NSH 2.8, CGY 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Daniil Miromanov scored at 6:38 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 52% to 80%. Dustin Wolf saved 2.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 6:38 | CGY | Daniil Miromanov from MacKenzie Weegar, Nazem Kadri | 0–1 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 18:51 | CGY | Blake ColemanEN unassisted | 0–2 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Josi D | 27:04 | +0.22 | +0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 11:05 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 12:58 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 15:36 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.11 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:41 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 14:03 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Del Gaizo D | 13:56 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 17:55 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 8:30 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 21:06 | −0.20 | +0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:07 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 18:17 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:04 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 11:51 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 20:19 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 17:13 | −0.37 | −0.07 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 15:13 | −0.40 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.11 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 14:54 | −0.43 | −0.08 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 59:08 | +2.08 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Miromanov D | 18:37 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.15 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Coronato R | 19:48 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 14:10 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:30 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lomberg L | 12:26 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Kirkland C | 11:18 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 12:34 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 21:55 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 25:21 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 16:04 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.27 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Bean D | 13:41 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 13:12 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:18 | −0.21 | +0.14 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 11:35 | −0.28 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 17:20 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Martin Pospisil C | 12:32 | −0.46 | +0.03 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 16:40 | −0.47 | −0.37 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 15:59 | −0.55 | −0.25 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 60:00 | +2.51 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.