CBJ beat PIT 6–2. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mathieu Olivier scored at 16:27 of the second, moving CBJ’s win probability from 53% to 76%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:20 | CBJ | Zachary Aston-Reese from Jake Christiansen, Kevin Labanc | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:39 | CBJ | Zach WerenskiPP from Egor Chinakhov, Adam Fantilli | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 11:51 |  PIT | Anthony Beauvillier from Sidney Crosby | 1–2 | 16% → 30% |
| P2 12:06 | PIT | Michael BuntingPP from Anthony Beauvillier, Drew O'Connor | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 16:27 | CBJ | Mathieu Olivier from Zach Werenski, Dante Fabbro | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 1:56 | CBJ | Dmitri Voronkov from Kirill Marchenko, Sean Monahan | 2–4 | 78% → 93% |
| P3 9:49 | CBJ | Damon Severson from Sean Monahan, Dmitri Voronkov | 2–5 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 15:32 | CBJ | Cole SillingerEN from Ivan Provorov, Justin Danforth | 2–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 13:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.11 | +0.59 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Michael Bunting L | 13:00 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.04 | +0.44 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Samuel Poulin R | 9:22 | +0.33 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 15:10 | +0.16 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 17:30 | +0.13 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 9:33 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 14:32 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 14:34 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 20:26 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 23:43 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 11:50 | −0.10 | +0.23 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 23:13 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 13:26 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 15:59 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.24 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.05 | |
| Bryan Rust R | 19:29 | −0.35 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John St. Ivany D | 18:40 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:45 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.41 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 18:33 | −0.45 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 58:38 | −1.00 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Severson D | 22:41 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.15 | +0.65 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 13:21 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.09 | +0.52 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 11:23 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 22:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.06 | +0.67 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 14:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.14 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kevin Labanc R | 11:18 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 22:11 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.18 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 15:12 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 10:57 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 13:09 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 15:34 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 16:16 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 19:09 | 2 | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 17:18 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.08 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 16:42 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 15:07 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 16:34 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.08 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 18:52 | 1 | −0.53 | +0.00 | −0.56 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 59:45 | +0.71 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.