NYI beat VAN 5–2. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Scott Mayfield scored at 0:14 of the second, moving NYI’s win probability from 47% to 66%. Kevin Lankinen allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:40 |  VAN | Jonathan Lekkerimäki from J.T. Miller, Filip Hronek | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 17:23 |  NYI | Jean-Gabriel PageauPP from Anders Lee, Oliver Wahlstrom | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 0:14 | NYI | Scott Mayfield from Bo Horvat | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 2:10 | NYI | Pierre Engvall from Simon Holmstrom, Grant Hutton | 3–1 | 66% → 81% |
| P3 11:42 | NYI | Anders Lee from Bo Horvat | 4–1 | 97% → 100% |
| P3 17:54 | NYI | Noah DobsonEN from Grant Hutton, Kyle Palmieri | 5–1 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 18:34 | VAN | Tyler Myers from Teddy Blueger | 5–2 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Mayfield D | 21:26 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.12 | +0.92 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 18:03 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.07 | +0.60 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Anders Lee C | 18:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.10 | +0.45 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Casey Cizikas C | 14:35 | +0.53 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.40 | +0.04 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 17:53 | 2 | +0.39 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.03 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 15:25 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.09 | +0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Grant Hutton D | 13:26 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 23:41 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dennis Cholowski D | 15:29 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 16:47 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaiah George D | 14:42 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 23:31 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 6:40 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 8:09 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 20:26 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 17:59 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.12 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 18:46 | −0.16 | +0.11 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 13:00 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 59:49 | +0.14 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Myers D | 19:18 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.10 | +0.69 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Lekkerimäki R | 15:06 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.11 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 13:04 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 11:27 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 16:31 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 27:00 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 12:42 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 10:27 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 13:50 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 15:34 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 20:38 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 12:05 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 9:33 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 17:59 | −0.26 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 19:04 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.15 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 27:10 | −0.44 | −0.15 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 18:45 | −0.45 | −0.05 | −0.59 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 13:47 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.11 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 57:12 | −1.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.