EDM beat NSH 3–2 in overtime. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Darnell Nurse scored at 2:33 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Scott Wedgewood saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:22 |  NSH | Michael McCarron from Roman Josi | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 2:44 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 5:30 | EDM | Darnell Nurse from Brett Kulak, Mattias Janmark | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 17:12 | NSH | Cole Smith from Zachary L'Heureux, Jeremy Lauzon | 2–2 | 8% → 49% |
| OT 2:33 | EDM | Darnell Nurse from Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael McCarron C | 14:05 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.09 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Cole Smith L | 13:55 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.11 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 22:35 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 14:02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 10:55 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Parssinen C | 12:52 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Marc Del Gaizo D | 15:17 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:05 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 21:25 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Evangelista R | 12:36 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 24:50 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 17:54 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 12:23 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 16:04 | −0.42 | −0.22 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 22:54 | −0.48 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:02 | −0.50 | −0.38 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 14:53 | −0.54 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.40 | +0.02 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 14:52 | −0.62 | −0.35 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 62:33 | +1.22 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Nurse D | 22:12 | 2 | 1 | +1.83 | +0.19 | +1.65 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Evan Bouchard D | 25:44 | +0.37 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 20:39 | +0.30 | +0.37 | −0.11 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 24:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.23 | −0.13 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 25:39 | 2 | +0.11 | +0.15 | −0.47 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.40 | −0.02 | |
| Connor Brown R | 13:50 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 13:36 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 21:46 | +0.07 | +0.18 | −0.32 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 8:15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 5:44 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 21:54 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 10:11 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 13:38 | −0.04 | +0.12 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 20:43 | −0.10 | +0.25 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 14:31 | −0.10 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 14:32 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 16:23 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 10:29 | −0.64 | +0.04 | −0.47 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 61:29 | +0.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.