PHI beat OTT 5–4 in overtime. PHI lost the expected-goals battle 1.6 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matvei Michkov scored at 4:05 of overtime, moving PHI’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Linus Ullmark allowed 3.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:31 | PHI | Travis Sanheim from Emil Andrae, Garnet Hathaway | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 6:02 |  OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Josh Norris, Travis Hamonic | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 8:41 | OTT | Drake BathersonPP from Tim Stützle, Jake Sanderson | 1–2 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 18:48 | PHI | Travis Konecny from Noah Cates, Nick Seeler | 2–2 | 23% → 47% |
| P3 4:27 | OTT | Josh Norris from Thomas Chabot, Ridly Greig | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 10:05 | OTT | Adam GaudettePP from Thomas Chabot, Ridly Greig | 2–4 | 84% → 96% |
| P3 10:42 | PHI | Anthony Richard from Bobby Brink, Egor Zamula | 3–4 | 3% → 16% |
| P3 12:45 | PHI | Bobby Brink from Anthony Richard, Travis Sanheim | 4–4 | 14% → 49% |
| OT 4:05 | PHI | Matvei Michkov from Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matvei Michkov R | 13:50 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.11 | +0.85 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 11:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.10 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Anthony Richard C | 10:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.41 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Travis Sanheim D | 28:22 | 1 | 2 | +0.32 | −0.28 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Travis Konecny R | 22:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.21 | +0.47 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Egor Zamula D | 14:43 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Garnet Hathaway R | 14:37 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Johnson D | 13:25 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 17:04 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 19:32 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 16:49 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 15:09 | −0.25 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 15:33 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 13:44 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 13:06 | −0.56 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 22:36 | −0.59 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 15:17 | −0.71 | −0.11 | −0.42 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Andrae D | 23:19 | 1 | −0.93 | −0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Fedotov G | 64:05 | +0.02 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Tkachuk L | 23:04 | 1 | +1.04 | +0.36 | +0.46 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 21:15 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.23 | +0.46 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Norris C | 19:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.28 | +0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Adam Gaudette R | 9:32 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.07 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 19:04 | +0.38 | +0.26 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 20:12 | +0.32 | +0.44 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 25:47 | 2 | +0.28 | +0.43 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 26:37 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.33 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack MacEwen C | 7:05 | +0.14 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 24:30 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.25 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Artem Zub D | 18:37 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 13:54 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Kleven D | 12:42 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 17:31 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.16 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 7:35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 12:58 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 11:30 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 17:01 | −0.22 | +0.15 | −0.38 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 63:44 | −3.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.