EDM beat NYI 4–3 in overtime. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 4.7 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Leon Draisaitl scored at 1:52 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:36 |  EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 15:58 |  NYI | Kyle Palmieri from Maxim Tsyplakov, Brock Nelson | 1–1 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 0:57 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Mattias Ekholm, Connor McDavid | 1–2 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 10:19 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 1–3 | 83% → 96% |
| P3 12:54 | NYI | Anders Lee from Ryan Pulock, Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 2–3 | 2% → 14% |
| P3 17:20 | NYI | Anders LeePP from Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Kyle Palmieri | 3–3 | 8% → 49% |
| OT 1:52 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Lee C | 17:36 | 2 | +1.25 | −0.28 | +1.53 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 20:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.40 | +0.74 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 9:21 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 15:17 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Isaiah George D | 18:52 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 24:36 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Cholowski D | 12:46 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 7:00 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Grant Hutton D | 12:23 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 8:10 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:48 | −0.35 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.03 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 17:38 | 2 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 18:43 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.37 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 18:57 | −0.52 | −0.51 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 22:37 | −0.53 | −0.33 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 16:23 | 1 | −0.57 | −0.17 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 21:16 | −0.68 | −0.49 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 27:07 | 1 | −0.77 | −0.80 | −0.22 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 61:45 | +0.93 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:05 | 2 | +1.90 | +0.45 | +1.36 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 24:35 | 1 | 2 | +0.72 | +0.62 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Connor McDavid C | 20:55 | 1 | 3 | +0.48 | +0.71 | −0.36 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Derek Ryan C | 10:32 | +0.29 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.05 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 19:58 | +0.27 | +0.54 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:39 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.57 | −0.33 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 20:54 | +0.23 | +0.25 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 12:50 | +0.20 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 24:38 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.47 | −0.42 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 14:11 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 13:30 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 12:34 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 13:01 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 23:27 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 13:38 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 14:04 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 8:53 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 13:16 | −0.83 | +0.01 | −0.65 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 61:51 | −0.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.