COL beat NSH 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NSH 3.3, COL 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Samuel Girard scored at 2:47 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Alexandar Georgiev saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:45 |  NSH | Luke EvangelistaPP from Juuso Parssinen, Marc Del Gaizo | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 4:32 | COL | Devon Toews from Samuel Girard, T.J. Tynan | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 11:37 | COL | Mikko Rantanen from Joel Kiviranta, Nathan MacKinnon | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 0:59 | NSH | Colton Sissons from Roman Josi | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| OT 2:47 | COL | Samuel Girard unassisted | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton Sissons C | 16:39 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.11 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 11:29 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.18 | +0.49 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 14:54 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 21:59 | +0.08 | +0.16 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 13:24 | +0.07 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.03 | ||
| Marc Del Gaizo D | 15:19 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Smith L | 13:59 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 19:55 | −0.17 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 10:51 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 20:16 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 11:40 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 12:20 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Roman Josi D | 26:42 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.21 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 20:00 | −0.41 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:49 | −0.46 | −0.10 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:16 | −0.54 | −0.34 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 18:12 | −0.54 | −0.03 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.05 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:40 | −0.85 | −0.05 | −0.78 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 62:44 | +0.50 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devon Toews D | 24:44 | 1 | +0.92 | −0.04 | +0.91 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 19:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.19 | +0.64 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 23:42 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.18 | +0.60 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.04 | |
| Cale Makar D | 27:45 | +0.29 | +0.40 | −0.17 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Prishchepov C | 6:02 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 16:19 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 16:14 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 14:52 | +0.05 | +0.19 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| T.J. Tynan C | 5:55 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Kiviranta L | 15:37 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.39 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 18:11 | −0.00 | +0.33 | −0.53 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 15:58 | −0.15 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 24:31 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolai Kovalenko R | 11:12 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Ivan C | 14:20 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wagner R | 7:14 | −0.26 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:29 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.13 | −0.62 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 18:16 | −0.60 | −0.12 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 62:47 | +1.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.