TOR beat MTL 4–1. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Conor Timmins scored at 14:55 of the first, moving TOR’s win probability from 53% to 71%. Samuel Montembeault allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:55 | TOR | Conor Timmins from Simon Benoit, Ryan Reaves | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 5:39 | TOR | William NylanderPP from Matthew Knies, Morgan Rielly | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 8:24 | TOR | Mitch MarnerSH from David Kampf | 0–3 | 87% → 96% |
| P2 9:26 |  MTL | Brendan GallagherPP from Emil Heineman, Lane Hutson | 1–3 | 4% → 12% |
| P2 12:15 | TOR | John TavaresPP from Mitch Marner, William Nylander | 1–4 | 89% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:11 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.06 | +0.72 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| David Savard D | 18:36 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 16:42 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Condotta L | 8:19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 23:37 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 12:50 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 15:36 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 15:39 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 15:56 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:06 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:00 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 13:51 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 15:20 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 24:09 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 13:36 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 22:29 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 11:02 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 14:58 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 60:00 | −1.26 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Timmins D | 17:51 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.02 | +0.88 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 22:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.05 | +0.43 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 |
| William Nylander R | 20:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.09 | +0.40 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Pontus Holmberg R | 10:01 | +0.26 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.40 | −0.01 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 18:48 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 18:42 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.06 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 21:08 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 17:00 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Kampf C | 14:22 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Max Pacioretty L | 5:10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 19:21 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 13:07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 12:20 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 16:25 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 12:45 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 10:49 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:14 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 21:46 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 60:00 | +0.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.