PIT beat WSH 4–2. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 4.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Evgeni Malkin scored at 10:28 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 48% to 81%. Joel Blomqvist saved 2.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:11 | PIT | Erik Karlsson from Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 6:59 | PIT | Michael Bunting from Erik Karlsson | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 8:22 | WSH | Rasmus Sandin from Connor McMichael, Tom Wilson | 2–1 | 24% → 37% |
| P2 6:04 | WSH | Andrew Mangiapane from Jakub Vrana, Hendrix Lapierre | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 10:28 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Bryan Rust, Kris Letang | 3–2 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 19:37 | PIT | Noel AcciariEN from Marcus Pettersson | 4–2 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bunting L | 12:17 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.22 | +0.39 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 18:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.03 | +0.59 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Erik Karlsson D | 21:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.02 | +0.51 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Blake Lizotte C | 9:51 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| John St. Ivany D | 16:08 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 18:16 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 22:37 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 22:41 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 10:10 | −0.18 | +0.10 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:17 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 13:52 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 9:14 | −0.20 | +0.13 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 16:46 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 7:30 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 18:54 | −0.40 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 17:19 | −0.42 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.03 | ||
| Rickard Rakell R | 20:10 | −0.60 | −0.18 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 18:27 | 1 | −0.70 | −0.15 | −0.53 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Blomqvist G | 59:35 | +2.64 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Sandin D | 20:59 | 1 | +1.36 | +0.30 | +0.87 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 13:21 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.04 | +0.54 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 16:50 | +0.20 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 18:49 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.35 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alexander Alexeyev D | 12:43 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 18:48 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 24:04 | −0.08 | +0.19 | −0.31 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 19:00 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 14:04 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 16:50 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 11:57 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 16:19 | −0.18 | +0.26 | −0.49 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 12:33 | −0.28 | +0.14 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 12:00 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 10:45 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 20:28 | −0.43 | +0.05 | −0.53 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 19:35 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.35 | −0.78 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 19:39 | −0.60 | −0.01 | −0.65 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 57:16 | +0.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.