VGK beat EDM 4–2. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Noah Hanifin scored at 19:11 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 50% to 96%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:05 | VGK | Jack Eichel from Shea Theodore, Ivan Barbashev | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 12:18 |  EDM | Brett Kulak from Darnell Nurse, Connor Brown | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 15:56 | EDM | Zach Hyman unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 10:05 | VGK | Noah HanifinPP from William Karlsson, Jack Eichel | 2–2 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 19:11 | VGK | Noah Hanifin from Ivan Barbashev, Alexander Holtz | 3–2 | 50% → 96% |
| P3 19:55 | VGK | Mark StoneEN from Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev | 4–2 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:32 | 2 | +1.77 | +0.22 | +1.55 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 20:01 | 1 | 2 | +0.83 | +0.11 | +0.67 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Cole Schwindt C | 11:03 | +0.15 | +0.11 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 23:31 | +0.12 | +0.21 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 16:40 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.20 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 13:18 | +0.10 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 22:08 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 13:36 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 19:19 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 14:28 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 14:12 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 13:16 | −0.14 | +0.17 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:38 | −0.19 | +0.13 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:23 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 14:11 | −0.22 | +0.07 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:55 | 3 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 15:08 | −0.40 | +0.06 | −0.46 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 14:41 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.14 | −0.58 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 60:00 | +0.65 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Hyman L | 18:46 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.15 | +0.81 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 23:48 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.06 | +0.65 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 23:53 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 11:43 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 10:34 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 21:36 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 14:08 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 11:07 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:28 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 21:02 | −0.26 | −0.09 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 13:57 | −0.27 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 13:50 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 12:57 | −0.33 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 14:49 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 19:58 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.29 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 12:37 | −0.38 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 14:10 | −0.39 | −0.04 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 15:44 | −0.65 | −0.17 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 59:20 | +0.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.