SJS beat CBJ 2–1 in overtime. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 4.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alexander Wennberg scored at 3:11 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Vitek Vanecek saved 3.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 18:49 | SJS | Jack Thompson from Will Smith, Fabian Zetterlund | 0–1 | 53% → 77% |
| P3 9:17 |  CBJ | Kirill Marchenko from Damon Severson, Egor Chinakhov | 1–1 | 18% → 48% |
| OT 3:11 | SJS | Alexander Wennberg from Fabian Zetterlund, Vitek Vanecek | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Marchenko R | 17:47 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.28 | +0.73 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Christiansen D | 16:43 | +0.45 | +0.69 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 8:45 | +0.27 | +0.20 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.04 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 22:02 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.91 | −0.62 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 12:42 | +0.09 | +0.23 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 8:05 | +0.07 | +0.24 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 11:11 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 21:28 | −0.02 | +0.29 | −0.57 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.06 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 10:16 | −0.05 | +0.16 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 20:36 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 19:32 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.27 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Pyyhtia L | 11:42 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Olivier R | 14:02 | −0.14 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| David Jiricek D | 9:15 | −0.22 | +0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 31:26 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.24 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 29:16 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Danforth R | 17:15 | −0.57 | +0.26 | −0.82 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 17:50 | −0.79 | +0.00 | −0.60 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 62:51 | +0.21 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Thompson D | 17:38 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.02 | +0.89 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:13 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.05 | +0.66 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Carl Grundstrom R | 10:56 | +0.21 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 17:43 | 2 | +0.17 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:46 | −0.06 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | −0.05 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 16:29 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 13:22 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 14:47 | −0.29 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 19:11 | −0.30 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 13:23 | −0.34 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 12:02 | −0.38 | −0.19 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 15:36 | −0.43 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 23:59 | −0.45 | −0.42 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 13:05 | −0.52 | −0.15 | −0.39 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 19:25 | −0.55 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 15:58 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.49 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Macklin Celebrini C | 17:06 | −0.71 | −0.14 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 23:02 | −0.71 | −0.52 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 63:03 | +3.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.