COL beat SEA 6–3. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Artturi Lehkonen scored on the power play at 6:44 of the second, moving COL’s win probability from 54% to 73%. Philipp Grubauer allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:28 | COL | Chris Wagner from Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 12:58 |  SEA | Jaden Schwartz from Matty Beniers, Ryker Evans | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 14:12 | COL | Ivan Ivan from Nikolai Kovalenko, Nathan MacKinnon | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 0:23 | SEA | Jared McCannPP from Chandler Stephenson | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 6:44 | COL | Artturi LehkonenPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar | 2–3 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 9:11 | COL | Mikko RantanenPP from Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon | 2–4 | 74% → 88% |
| P3 17:31 | SEA | Matty BeniersPP from Brandon Montour, Jared McCann | 3–4 | 1% → 7% |
| P3 17:55 | COL | Mikko RantanenEN from Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon | 3–5 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 19:58 | COL | Nikolai KovalenkoPP from Casey Mittelstadt, Josh Manson | 3–6 | 100% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaden Schwartz C | 18:20 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.03 | +0.63 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 17:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Jared McCann L | 19:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.11 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cale Fleury D | 11:11 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 14:44 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 18:45 | −0.05 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 14:50 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 9:28 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 18:20 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 18:38 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 14:53 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 22:44 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 12:22 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 8:54 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Shane Wright C | 10:19 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 21:02 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 24:17 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 17:44 | −0.51 | −0.04 | −0.47 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 58:03 | −1.51 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen R | 23:55 | 2 | +1.08 | +0.13 | +0.68 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Ivan Ivan C | 12:17 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.04 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Wagner R | 9:04 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.06 | +0.76 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nikolai Kovalenko R | 11:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.05 | +0.71 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 22:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.20 | +0.22 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Calvin de Haan D | 15:17 | +0.24 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 14:09 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Nikita Prishchepov C | 7:26 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 20:33 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cale Makar D | 15:07 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.23 | −0.27 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Kiviranta L | 13:34 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Tynan C | 7:32 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:21 | 5 | −0.16 | +0.19 | −0.52 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 20:21 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 23:51 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.23 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 19:19 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 14:57 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 19:18 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.09 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 60:00 | −1.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.