CGY beat MTL 3–2 in overtime. CGY lost the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matt Coronato scored at 0:07 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:20 |  CGY | Connor Zary from Nazem Kadri, Daniil Miromanov | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 16:23 |  MTL | Brendan GallagherPP from Joel Armia, Oliver Kapanen | 1–1 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 5:56 | MTL | Joel ArmiaSH from Jake Evans | 1–2 | 51% → 79% |
| P3 17:14 | CGY | Matt Coronato from Blake Coleman | 2–2 | 8% → 49% |
| OT 0:07 | CGY | Matt Coronato unassisted | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Coronato R | 16:35 | 2 | +1.70 | +0.21 | +1.55 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Zary C | 18:10 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.18 | +0.58 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Barrie D | 13:20 | +0.18 | +0.24 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 17:37 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.23 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 24:15 | +0.03 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 13:05 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniil Miromanov D | 20:56 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 5:06 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 15:52 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.25 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 15:33 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 18:18 | −0.21 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 11:47 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 22:57 | −0.27 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 8:10 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 24:57 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Kirkland C | 8:55 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:57 | −0.42 | +0.15 | −0.56 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 18:55 | −0.85 | −0.02 | −0.79 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 60:07 | +0.90 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Gallagher R | 14:08 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.72 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Armia R | 11:34 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.10 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Christian Dvorak C | 14:51 | +0.14 | −0.16 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.40 | +0.09 | ||
| David Savard D | 17:07 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 13:22 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 23:26 | −0.07 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 7:54 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 20:20 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 11:34 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 14:37 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 8:07 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 26:23 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 17:25 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:25 | −0.21 | +0.19 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 15:08 | −0.21 | +0.34 | −0.53 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:18 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 21:29 | −0.26 | +0.18 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 21:20 | −0.48 | −0.06 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 60:00 | +0.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.