CHI beat ANA 4–2. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 4.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Isaak Phillips scored at 12:57 of the first, moving CHI’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Arvid Soderblom saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:57 | CHI | Isaak Phillips from Connor Bedard, Taylor Hall | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:44 | CHI | Teuvo TeravainenPP from Taylor Hall, Alex Vlasic | 2–0 | 66% → 79% |
| P2 18:05 | CHI | Seth JonesPP from Connor Bedard, Lukas Reichel | 3–0 | 89% → 97% |
| P3 10:16 | ANA | Brock McGinn from Ross Johnston | 3–1 | 1% → 4% |
| P3 17:43 | CHI | Ryan Donato from Connor Bedard, Philipp Kurashev | 4–1 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 19:56 | ANA | Mason McTavishPP from Troy Terry, Ryan Strome | 4–2 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Jones D | 24:40 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.05 | +0.78 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isaak Phillips D | 11:40 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.06 | +0.87 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 14:44 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.08 | +0.82 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 13:46 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.10 | +0.55 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 17:16 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 15:06 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 13:20 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 18:41 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 8:25 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 25:14 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 10:20 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 24:03 | −0.21 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 15:55 | −0.21 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 17:17 | −0.26 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Nolan Allan D | 13:33 | −0.45 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 14:07 | 2 | −0.52 | +0.14 | −0.50 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 14:48 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Connor Bedard C | 17:41 | 3 | −0.77 | −0.07 | −0.64 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arvid Soderblom G | 59:56 | +2.20 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock McGinn L | 9:16 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.05 | +0.66 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 19:40 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.04 | +0.58 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 17:54 | +0.22 | +0.24 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 22:01 | +0.14 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 18:41 | +0.11 | +0.24 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Zegras C | 18:27 | +0.09 | +0.14 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 13:08 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 20:35 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 22:11 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 7:29 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cutter Gauthier L | 17:43 | −0.12 | +0.14 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 14:29 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 15:21 | −0.16 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 9:30 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 16:08 | −0.23 | +0.05 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 18:04 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.12 | −0.63 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 20:28 | −0.53 | −0.04 | −0.45 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 18:05 | −0.65 | +0.14 | −0.59 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 58:32 | −1.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.