CAR beat WSH 4–2. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dmitry Orlov scored at 5:26 of the second, moving CAR’s win probability from 53% to 73%. Charlie Lindgren saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:01 | CAR | Dmitry Orlov from Martin Necas | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:16 |  WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from John Carlson, Dylan Strome | 1–1 | 33% → 48% |
| P1 19:49 | WSH | Brandon Duhaime from Nic Dowd | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 2:29 | CAR | Martin Necas from Eric Robinson, Jesperi Kotkaniemi | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 5:26 | CAR | Dmitry Orlov from Martin Necas, Jalen Chatfield | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 19:51 | CAR | Andrei SvechnikovEN unassisted | 2–4 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Duhaime R | 13:44 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.11 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 21:03 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.18 | +0.48 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 20:26 | +0.23 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 10:21 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan McIlrath D | 10:47 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Alexeyev D | 12:24 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 21:04 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 5:46 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 21:59 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 19:47 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 20:13 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 20:36 | −0.20 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 21:07 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 13:21 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 15:02 | −0.26 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 26:10 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.22 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 5:59 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 15:30 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 58:41 | +1.85 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Orlov D | 20:18 | 2 | +2.14 | +0.08 | +1.67 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 17:46 | 1 | 2 | +0.35 | +0.03 | +0.50 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.01 |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 21:42 | +0.13 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 21:50 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 11:45 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 13:18 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 12:48 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 19:07 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 18:24 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 11:47 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:31 | −0.11 | +0.10 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| William Carrier L | 11:04 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 12:48 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.14 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 17:34 | −0.32 | +0.11 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 16:02 | −0.33 | +0.10 | −0.40 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 13:33 | −0.54 | +0.06 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 17:34 | 1 | −0.66 | +0.06 | −0.56 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:43 | −0.72 | +0.07 | −0.80 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 60:00 | +0.45 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.