VAN beat SJS 3–2. VAN also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Pius Suter scored at 19:34 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 49% to 97%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:37 |  SJS | Nico Sturm from Luke Kunin | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 14:41 |  VAN | Pius Suter from Nils Hoglander, Conor Garland | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 15:38 | VAN | Jake DeBrusk from Quinn Hughes, Filip Hronek | 2–1 | 49% → 88% |
| P3 18:43 | SJS | Mikael GranlundPP from Tyler Toffoli, William Eklund | 2–2 | 7% → 50% |
| P3 19:34 | VAN | Pius Suter from Conor Garland, Carson Soucy | 3–2 | 49% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pius Suter C | 12:39 | 2 | +1.65 | +0.15 | +1.49 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 14:35 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.22 | +0.66 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 19:39 | +0.29 | +0.19 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 18:30 | +0.28 | +0.41 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 20:06 | 2 | +0.22 | +0.25 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 24:49 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.37 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 25:57 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.40 | −0.51 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 18:52 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Brannstrom D | 10:47 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 10:14 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Forbort D | 15:18 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 14:46 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:31 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 20:46 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 19:26 | −0.11 | +0.36 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 12:53 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Arshdeep Bains L | 11:35 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 10:38 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 59:59 | −0.03 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Sturm C | 8:50 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.09 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 22:08 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.13 | +0.61 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Timothy Liljegren D | 16:57 | +0.14 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:50 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Henry Thrun D | 12:57 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 8:08 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 18:30 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 14:57 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ethan Cardwell R | 16:23 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 18:06 | −0.16 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| William Eklund L | 19:56 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Walman D | 20:35 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 24:12 | −0.36 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 16:24 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 21:00 | −0.37 | −0.38 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danil Gushchin L | 10:12 | −0.40 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:06 | −0.42 | −0.08 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 14:57 | −0.59 | −0.24 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 58:52 | −0.70 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.