WSH beat MTL 6–3. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 4.9 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Connor McMichael scored at 4:21 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 52% to 79%. Charlie Lindgren allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:21 |  WSH | Tom WilsonPP from Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson | 0–1 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 9:52 |  MTL | Cole CaufieldPP from Nick Suzuki | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 10:31 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Lane Hutson, Christian Dvorak | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 11:45 | WSH | Brandon Duhaime from Taylor Raddysh, Trevor van Riemsdyk | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 12:39 | WSH | Jakub Vrana unassisted | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 18:00 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from David Savard, Lane Hutson | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 4:21 | WSH | Connor McMichael from Trevor van Riemsdyk, Tom Wilson | 3–4 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 4:57 | WSH | Aliaksei Protas from Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome | 3–5 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 12:27 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Aliaksei Protas, Dylan Strome | 3–6 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.20 | +0.89 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 12:57 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.10 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 21:31 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.22 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 18:39 | +0.36 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.40 | +0.02 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 19:00 | 2 | +0.02 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 10:52 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 15:59 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 10:31 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 10:53 | −0.13 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 10:12 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Emil Heineman L | 11:29 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 20:46 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 21:31 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 13:25 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 14:40 | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 19:17 | −0.37 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 10:49 | −0.56 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.03 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 27:46 | −0.57 | −0.30 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cayden Primeau G | 60:00 | −1.80 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin L | 17:30 | 1 | 2 | +1.13 | +0.24 | +0.79 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 14:47 | 1 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.20 | +0.87 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 14:00 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.25 | +0.70 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.02 | |
| Jakub Vrana L | 10:07 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.05 | +0.58 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 17:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.21 | +0.11 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| John Carlson D | 28:30 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.56 | −0.31 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 18:41 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.17 | +0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 23:44 | +0.20 | +0.43 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 18:09 | 2 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Sgarbossa C | 8:03 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.03 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 12:10 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Alexeyev D | 13:17 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 17:05 | +0.08 | +0.18 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan McIlrath D | 11:49 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 17:38 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 14:01 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 16:58 | −0.26 | +0.29 | −0.64 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.08 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 14:44 | 2 | −0.32 | +0.12 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 59:46 | −1.93 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.