PHI beat STL 2–1. Expected goals were close to even (STL 1.8, PHI 1.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Bobby Brink scored at 16:59 of the third, moving PHI’s win probability from 51% to 92%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:12 | PHI | Garnet Hathaway from Ryan Poehling, Nick Seeler | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P3 9:58 | STL | Nathan Walker from Philip Broberg, Zachary Bolduc | 1–1 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 16:59 | PHI | Bobby Brink from Joel Farabee, Scott Laughton | 1–2 | 51% → 92% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Walker L | 11:28 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.06 | +0.67 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 20:53 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 11:57 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 11:58 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Perunovich D | 10:11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 24:20 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 12:04 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 9:52 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 20:00 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 23:46 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 11:38 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 16:48 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 22:49 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 15:45 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:08 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 16:49 | −0.28 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 17:21 | −0.49 | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 19:37 | −0.55 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 57:36 | −0.31 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garnet Hathaway R | 14:12 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 12:16 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.07 | +0.74 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 23:42 | +0.32 | +0.32 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Foerster R | 13:56 | +0.19 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 22:04 | +0.15 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 25:48 | +0.15 | +0.27 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 12:31 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 17:33 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 14:52 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 12:22 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 16:53 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Andrae D | 17:03 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 13:56 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 18:25 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 14:41 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 13:56 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 18:46 | −0.18 | +0.15 | −0.20 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.05 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 13:11 | −0.36 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 59:53 | +0.66 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.