UTA beat CGY 5–1. UTA also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alexander Kerfoot scored at 4:41 of the first, moving UTA’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Connor Ingram saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:41 | UTA | Alexander Kerfoot from Michael Kesselring, Mikhail Sergachev | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 19:58 | UTA | Barrett Hayton from Nick Schmaltz, Ian Cole | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 3:53 |  CGY | Anthony Mantha from Justin Kirkland, MacKenzie Weegar | 1–2 | 13% → 28% |
| P2 4:10 | UTA | Maveric Lamoureux from Kevin Stenlund, Jack McBain | 1–3 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 16:32 | UTA | Mikhail SergachevPP from Dylan Guenther, Nick Schmaltz | 1–4 | 93% → 98% |
| P3 5:13 | UTA | Clayton KellerPP from Dylan Guenther, Mikhail Sergachev | 1–5 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Mantha R | 15:28 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.00 | +0.81 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 20:22 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 14:50 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.43 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.40 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Kirkland C | 11:53 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Pachal D | 20:26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 14:33 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Honzek L | 10:52 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 17:33 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 14:06 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:39 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 11:43 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 16:42 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 12:03 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 13:45 | −0.35 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 17:47 | −0.40 | −0.05 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 22:21 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 16:20 | −0.40 | −0.10 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 17:22 | −0.42 | −0.03 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 60:00 | −1.75 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maveric Lamoureux D | 16:08 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.02 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 19:33 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.01 | +0.70 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.20 | −0.03 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:19 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.03 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 22:46 | 1 | 2 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.78 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Juuso Välimäki D | 11:37 | +0.29 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 15:31 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 18:55 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Barrett Hayton C | 16:45 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.06 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 20:06 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack McBain C | 14:42 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 13:59 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Vladislav Kolyachonok D | 12:27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 15:44 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 18:51 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.26 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 14:49 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Kesselring D | 13:33 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 16:40 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 13:35 | 2 | −0.89 | −0.00 | −0.48 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 60:00 | +1.94 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.