SJS beat LAK 4–2. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tyler Toffoli scored at 11:02 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 52% to 84%. David Rittich allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:20 | SJS | Jake Walman from Nico Sturm, Carl Grundstrom | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 3:18 | LAK | Akil Thomas from Brandt Clarke, Trevor Moore | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 6:25 | SJS | Fabian Zetterlund from Alexander Wennberg, Jake Walman | 1–2 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 8:52 | LAK | Alex Laferriere from Warren Foegele | 2–2 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 11:02 | SJS | Tyler Toffoli from Jake Walman | 2–3 | 52% → 84% |
| P3 19:22 | SJS | William EklundEN from Luke Kunin, Mario Ferraro | 2–4 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akil Thomas C | 13:06 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.25 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Laferriere R | 15:23 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.11 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 9:57 | +0.21 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.03 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 21:10 | +0.15 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 11:27 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 19:14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Turcotte C | 13:55 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 18:01 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Spence D | 17:55 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 18:48 | −0.12 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 10:42 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 18:45 | −0.23 | −0.26 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | ||
| Andre Lee L | 10:33 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinton Byfield R | 20:14 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.02 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 19:46 | −0.33 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 15:06 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.11 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Trevor Moore L | 17:43 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.13 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandt Clarke D | 22:50 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.15 | −0.53 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 58:08 | −1.11 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Toffoli C | 14:51 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.02 | +0.62 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Walman D | 21:17 | 1 | 2 | +0.69 | +0.20 | +0.90 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.00 |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 18:06 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.07 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 10:52 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.02 | |
| Matt Benning D | 11:54 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 19:36 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 24:51 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:16 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 22:44 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jan Rutta D | 20:10 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 18:26 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Smith C | 11:46 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 15:39 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Danil Gushchin L | 11:17 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ethan Cardwell R | 11:57 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Thompson D | 13:16 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 8:31 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 15:11 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 59:08 | +0.73 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.