MIN beat PIT 5–3. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Frederick Gaudreau scored at 1:38 of the second, moving MIN’s win probability from 47% to 66%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:36 | PIT | Valtteri PuustinenPP from Matt Grzelcyk, Sidney Crosby | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 15:31 | PIT | Rickard Rakell from Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 17:03 | MIN | Jakub Lauko from Marat Khusnutdinov | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P1 17:58 | MIN | Frederick Gaudreau unassisted | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 1:38 | MIN | Frederick Gaudreau from Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber | 3–2 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 19:23 | MIN | Mats Zuccarello from Kirill Kaprizov, Marco Rossi | 4–2 | 72% → 89% |
| P3 3:36 | PIT | Rickard Rakell from Marcus Pettersson, Sidney Crosby | 4–3 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 19:41 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovEN from Frederick Gaudreau, Jake Middleton | 5–3 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 12:53 | 2 | 1 | +1.77 | +0.02 | +1.52 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.20 | +0.02 |
| Jakub Lauko C | 8:42 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.04 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 20:50 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.05 | +0.44 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | |
| Brock Faber D | 23:58 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.23 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 21:59 | +0.11 | +0.17 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 11:22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 19:54 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 18:54 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 14:39 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 8:47 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 24:38 | 1 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.09 | −0.49 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Matt Boldy L | 23:31 | −0.16 | +0.17 | −0.36 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 12:17 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 7:21 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 14:41 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 22:05 | −0.27 | +0.17 | −0.35 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 16:01 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 59:59 | −0.60 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickard Rakell R | 19:57 | 2 | +1.16 | −0.12 | +1.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 11:50 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.02 | +0.84 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 13:46 | +0.17 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 14:18 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 18:24 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:44 | 3 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | |
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 4:59 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 17:37 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 16:07 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.20 | −0.07 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 25:45 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 20:04 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 24:06 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John St. Ivany D | 13:50 | −0.22 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 21:38 | −0.27 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 6:32 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 12:48 | −0.31 | +0.06 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 10:57 | −0.49 | −0.12 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 17:49 | −0.71 | +0.10 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.40 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Blomqvist G | 58:49 | −0.94 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.