COL beat OTT 5–4. COL also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Logan O'Connor scored at 13:29 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 51% to 86%. Justus Annunen allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:52 | COL | Nikolai KovalenkoPP from Casey Mittelstadt, Nathan MacKinnon | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 19:42 | COL | Josh Manson from Casey Mittelstadt, Samuel Girard | 0–2 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 9:15 |  OTT | Brady Tkachuk from Tyler Kleven, Nick Cousins | 1–2 | 4% → 18% |
| P3 11:23 | OTT | Nick Cousins from Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle | 2–2 | 16% → 48% |
| P3 13:29 | COL | Logan O'Connor from Casey Mittelstadt, Samuel Girard | 2–3 | 51% → 86% |
| P3 15:01 | COL | Ross Colton from Cale Makar | 2–4 | 88% → 99% |
| P3 16:48 | OTT | Claude Giroux from Drake Batherson, Thomas Chabot | 3–4 | 1% → 9% |
| P3 18:45 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonEN from Mikko Rantanen | 3–5 | 95% → 100% |
| P3 19:50 | OTT | Claude GirouxPP from Josh Norris, Brady Tkachuk | 4–5 | 0% → 3% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Giroux R | 20:37 | 2 | +1.31 | −0.02 | +1.26 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 11:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.09 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:37 | 1 | 2 | +0.03 | −0.08 | +0.13 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 14:40 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Kleven D | 15:20 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 20:25 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 24:31 | −0.07 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 16:04 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 20:38 | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 22:43 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 10:23 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Reinhardt L | 7:15 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 7:30 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 13:23 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 20:58 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 19:53 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.11 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 19:54 | −0.36 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 15:24 | −0.42 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 4:46 | +0.18 |
| Anton Forsberg G | 53:08 | −0.25 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Manson D | 20:22 | 1 | +1.04 | +0.20 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolai Kovalenko R | 14:10 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.03 | +0.78 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 18:28 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.15 | +0.52 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 18:56 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 15:39 | +0.16 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Stienburg C | 7:36 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:42 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 22:34 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 19:03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 21:46 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Wagner R | 8:06 | −0.07 | +0.13 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:14 | 1 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.33 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Miles Wood L | 13:18 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 11:10 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 22:24 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 19:11 | 3 | −0.22 | +0.10 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Ivan Ivan C | 8:34 | −0.25 | +0.04 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 23:13 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.29 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 59:34 | −1.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.