VAN beat PIT 4–3. VAN also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kiefer Sherwood scored at 4:49 of the second, moving VAN’s win probability from 33% to 53%. Kevin Lankinen allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:48 |  PIT | Anthony Beauvillier from Marcus Pettersson, Evgeni Malkin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 1:56 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Anthony Beauvillier, Evgeni Malkin | 2–0 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 4:06 |  VAN | Elias Pettersson from Conor Garland, Tyler Myers | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 4:49 | VAN | Kiefer Sherwood from Teddy Blueger, Vincent Desharnais | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 5:11 | VAN | J.T. Miller from Brock Boeser | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 9:58 | VAN | Arshdeep Bains from Daniel Sprong | 2–4 | 74% → 88% |
| P3 13:22 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Rickard Rakell, Matt Grzelcyk | 3–4 | 2% → 14% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 14:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.20 | +0.81 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 |
| Bryan Rust R | 13:18 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.19 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:15 | 1 | 2 | +0.33 | −0.31 | +0.67 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Graves D | 16:11 | +0.09 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 17:31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 9:52 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 8:15 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 22:23 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John St. Ivany D | 14:49 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 14:43 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:46 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 11:10 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 18:05 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 19:51 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.21 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Letang D | 25:32 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 16:31 | −0.44 | −0.14 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 15:20 | −0.50 | −0.11 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 21:17 | −0.52 | −0.26 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 58:20 | −0.18 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Pettersson C | 19:11 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.14 | +0.69 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 12:48 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.05 | +0.75 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 19:44 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.20 | +0.43 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Arshdeep Bains L | 9:25 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.09 | +0.57 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Brannstrom D | 14:04 | +0.28 | +0.24 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 24:00 | +0.17 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 14:16 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 12:26 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 18:04 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 25:59 | +0.03 | +0.17 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 13:41 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 12:46 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 18:39 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 18:57 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.24 | −0.34 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 15:50 | −0.22 | +0.11 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 16:30 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 19:03 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.16 | −0.60 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 10:37 | 1 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 60:00 | −1.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.