FLA beat NYI 6–3. Expected goals were close to even (FLA 2.7, NYI 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Sam Bennett scored at 6:19 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 48% to 77%. Semyon Varlamov allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:32 | NYI | Dennis Cholowski from Casey Cizikas | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:01 | NYI | Kyle Palmieri from Ryan Pulock, Maxim Tsyplakov | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 11:41 | NYI | Brock Nelson from Maxim Tsyplakov, Kyle Palmieri | 0–3 | 84% → 91% |
| P1 13:27 |  FLA | Sam Reinhart from Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell | 1–3 | 8% → 16% |
| P2 6:38 | FLA | Matthew Tkachuk from Carter Verhaeghe | 2–3 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 18:16 | FLA | Mackie Samoskevich from Dmitry Kulikov, Spencer Knight | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 6:19 | FLA | Sam Bennett from Matthew Tkachuk, Niko Mikkola | 4–3 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 9:49 | FLA | Matthew TkachukPP from Adam Boqvist, Anton Lundell | 5–3 | 81% → 95% |
| P3 17:43 | FLA | Gustav ForslingEN unassisted | 6–3 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 16:14 | 2 | 1 | +1.49 | +0.09 | +1.35 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 9:12 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 15:51 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.06 | +0.74 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.08 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 20:46 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.01 | +0.48 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 23:14 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 21:52 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 23:15 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Uvis Balinskis D | 10:18 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 12:22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Boqvist D | 13:29 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 14:58 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 13:10 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 21:37 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Giles R | 8:05 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 17:46 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 18:19 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.08 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 12:43 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 21:16 | 2 | −0.34 | +0.07 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 60:00 | −0.39 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Cholowski D | 11:18 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.03 | +0.89 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 17:36 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.08 | +0.53 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 17:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.14 | +0.70 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.01 |
| Adam Pelech D | 22:10 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 17:58 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.20 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:01 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 17:24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:41 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 10:37 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 19:12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 16:05 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 15:04 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 23:35 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Martin L | 9:45 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 11:11 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 25:01 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 19:13 | −0.31 | −0.08 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 16:26 | −0.56 | −0.02 | −0.54 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 58:14 | −2.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.